Illustrative only
Peak-sales model
Asset A
Peak-sales model for Asset A: addressable patients times peak penetration times annual net price, with persistence applied. At the base case 430,000 patients, 18%, $4,600 and 0.82 give $292m.
Peak sales
$292m
77,400 patients at peak
0.82 persistence applied · share of a year on therapy, from the 12-month discontinuation of the marketed classes
Risk-adjusted$146mat 50% PoS
Next value inflectionH2 2027 readout – a target-level mortality result takes peak sales from $292m to $496m.
Strategic fit versus the ideal TPP
Where Asset A is expected to land
Asset A against the minimum and target the ideal TPP sets for each dimension; the level chosen on each sets the penetration and the price in the peak-sales model.
Minimum to be relevant → Target to winStandard of care todayWhere Asset A is expected to landBest Phase III competitor – Asset B, expected
Standard of care today 0%Minimum to be relevant 8%Target to win 15%Asset B 8%
FitMinimum
Standard of care today 0%Minimum to be relevant 12%Target to win 25%Asset B 14%
FitMinimum
Standard of care today 3 ptsMinimum to be relevant 5 ptsTarget to win 10 ptsAsset B 4 pts
FitMinimum
Standard of care today 62%Minimum to be relevant 65%Target to win 80%Asset B 70%
FitMinimum
Standard of care today 88%Minimum to be relevant 88%Target to win 94%Asset B 86%
FitMinimum
Standard of care today 59%Minimum to be relevant 59%Target to win 90%Asset B 59%
FitMinimum
Standard of care today 43%Minimum to be relevant 43%Target to win 75%Asset B 25%
FitMinimum
Strategic fit
Asset A reaches the target on 0 of 7 dimensions and clears the minimum on 7. What the H2 2027 readout shows decides the profile it launches with.
Probability of success
Base rate by stage
Historical probability of reaching approval from each development stage in this therapy area; Phase III, the current stage, is marked.
- Phase I8%
- Phase II15%
- Phase IIICurrent stage55%
- Filed88%
Asset-specific drivers
As assessed
- Target validation±3 ppMechanism validated in an earlier Phase III programme
- Biomarker clarity±3 ppNo enrichment biomarker; enrolment by EF segment and NYHA class
- Clinical effect size±6 ppPhase II moved the natriuretic peptide more than the functional endpoint
- Modality novelty±2 ppOral small molecule on a precedented development path
- Safety signal±5 ppNo new signal reported at Phase II
- Regulatory precedent±2 ppEvent-driven endpoint accepted in the indication
- Competitive context±6 pp14 Phase III programmes; a comparator could move before readout
Adjusted probability of success
Low35%
Base50%
High60%
Base rate plus the drivers; low and high at 0.7× and 1.2× of it.
Clinical and development profile
Asset A
- Target / mechanism
- Cardiac myosin modulation
- Modality
- Oral small molecule
- Stage
- Phase III, enrolling
- Population
- HFrEF, NYHA II–III, on foundational therapy
- Primary endpoint
- CV death or HF hospitalisation, event-driven
- Sponsor
- Company A
- Differentiation
- Adds a contractility mechanism absent from the four foundational classes
- Phase II
- Natriuretic peptide and symptom score moved; no new safety signal
- Competitive position at launch
- 2029: two marketed add-on classes; Asset J launching the same year, Asset B in 2030
Timeline to launch
Asset A timeline: Phase III enrolling in 2026, primary readout in the second half of 2027, submission in 2028 and a potential launch in 2029.
- 2026Phase III enrolling
- H2 2027Primary readout
- 2028Submission
- 2029Potential launch