Illustrative only
GeographyUS
Addressable patients1,900,000
Probability of success, base20%
Potential launchQ4 ’32
Peak sales · Base case$520m
Risk-adjusted peak sales$104m
Development spend, next 12 months12%
Market attractiveness
- Market size5 / 5
- Unmet need4 / 5
- Competitive headroom2.5 / 5
- Pricing potential2 / 5
Why it sits where it does
The biggest peak-sales potential in the set, discounted heavily by a 20% probability of success.
0–5 = attractiveness. A crowded market or a high bar scores low.
Assessment summary
Next decision
Phase II readout 2029 – PoS 20% → 55% if positive.
The nine modules behind this summary are built out on Heart failure (HFrEF) in this preview.
Open the HFrEF workspace