Illustrative only
GeographyUS
Addressable patients3,400,000
Probability of success, base10%
Potential launchQ4 ’33
Peak sales · Base case$350m
Risk-adjusted peak sales$35m
Development spend, next 12 months2%
Market attractiveness
- Market size5 / 5
- Unmet need2 / 5
- Competitive headroom1 / 5
- Pricing potential1.5 / 5
Why it sits where it does
The largest addressable population and the lowest risk-adjusted value: crowded, cheap and early.
0–5 = attractiveness. A crowded market or a high bar scores low.
Assessment summary
Next decision
Phase I completion 2028 – PoS 10% → 15% if positive.
The nine modules behind this summary are built out on Heart failure (HFrEF) in this preview.
Open the HFrEF workspace