Illustrative only
GeographyUS
Addressable patients90,000
Probability of success, base32%
Potential launchQ4 ’31
Peak sales · Base case$240m
Risk-adjusted peak sales$77m
Development spend, next 12 months8%
Market attractiveness
- Market size2.5 / 5
- Unmet need3.5 / 5
- Competitive headroom2.5 / 5
- Pricing potential4 / 5
Why it sits where it does
A small population with strong pricing potential: the value comes from price, not from volume.
0–5 = attractiveness. A crowded market or a high bar scores low.
Assessment summary
Next decision
Phase II readout 2029 – PoS 32% → 55% if positive.
The nine modules behind this summary are built out on Heart failure (HFrEF) in this preview.
Open the HFrEF workspace