Illustrative only
GeographyUS
Addressable patients45,000
Probability of success, base55%
Potential launchQ3 ’28
Peak sales · Base case$380m
Risk-adjusted peak sales$209m
Development spend, next 12 months22%
Market attractiveness
- Market size2 / 5
- Unmet need3 / 5
- Competitive headroom2.5 / 5
- Pricing potential4.5 / 5
Why it sits where it does
The highest risk-adjusted value in the portfolio: a Phase III programme in a small, well-priced population.
0–5 = attractiveness. A crowded market or a high bar scores low.
Assessment summary
Next decision
Phase III readout 2027 – PoS 55% → 88% if positive.
The nine modules behind this summary are built out on Heart failure (HFrEF) in this preview.
Open the HFrEF workspace