Illustrative only
GeographyUS
Addressable patients2,800,000
Probability of success, base12%
Potential launchQ2 ’33
Peak sales · Base case$640m
Risk-adjusted peak sales$77m
Development spend, next 12 months3%
Market attractiveness
- Market size5 / 5
- Unmet need2.5 / 5
- Competitive headroom1 / 5
- Pricing potential2.5 / 5
Why it sits where it does
Large and already well served: the lowest competitive-intensity score in the portfolio.
0–5 = attractiveness. A crowded market or a high bar scores low.
Assessment summary
Next decision
Phase I completion 2028 – PoS 12% → 15% if positive.
The nine modules behind this summary are built out on Heart failure (HFrEF) in this preview.
Open the HFrEF workspace