Illustrative only
GeographyUS
Addressable patients800,000
Probability of success, base15%
Potential launchQ3 ’32
Peak sales · Base case$300m
Risk-adjusted peak sales$45m
Development spend, next 12 months6%
Market attractiveness
- Market size4 / 5
- Unmet need3.5 / 5
- Competitive headroom2.5 / 5
- Pricing potential2.5 / 5
Why it sits where it does
Attractive epidemiology, discounted by a 15% probability of success at Phase II.
0–5 = attractiveness. A crowded market or a high bar scores low.
Assessment summary
Next decision
Phase II readout 2029 – PoS 15% → 55% if positive.
The nine modules behind this summary are built out on Heart failure (HFrEF) in this preview.
Open the HFrEF workspace