Illustrative only
GeographyUS
Addressable patients610,000
Probability of success, base25%
Potential launchQ2 ’31
Peak sales · Base case$410m
Risk-adjusted peak sales$103m
Development spend, next 12 months14%
Market attractiveness
- Market size4.5 / 5
- Unmet need4.5 / 5
- Competitive headroom3 / 5
- Pricing potential3 / 5
Why it sits where it does
The highest unmet need in the portfolio, in a segment reached by one marketed class.
0–5 = attractiveness. A crowded market or a high bar scores low.
Assessment summary
Next decision
Phase II readout 2028 – PoS 25% → 55% if positive.
The nine modules behind this summary are built out on Heart failure (HFrEF) in this preview.
Open the HFrEF workspace